by Valerie Erde

When it comes to colleges’ annual announcements and pronouncements, the teens in this photo pretty much sum up my reaction. And the Francophile in immediately thinks of the expression “plus ca change, plus c’est la même chose.”  (The more things change, the more they stay the same.) Why? Because even seemingly “big” changes in college admissions policies often don’t result in actionable or meaningful changes for you as an individual student. This year is no different.

Here’s my take on the top five admissions trends to keep an eye out for in 2024.

1. Test optional is becoming, Well, less optional

Citing both trends in rampant and rising grade inflation, as well as equity issues, MIT, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, and Purdue reverted back to requiring the ACT or SAT post pandemic. Now, Brown, Dartmouth, Yale, and the University of Texas, Austin announced that they’ll require some form of standardized testing for the high school class of 2025.  Brown, Dartmouth, and UT Austin will require either SAT or ACT scores, while Yale has adopted a new “test flexible” approach: applicants will need to submit test results, but they can report AP or IB scores instead of the ACT or SAT if they wish.

Will we see more colleges reverting to ACT/SAT required, or perhaps follow Yale’s lead of replacing ACT/SAT-only with test test flexible?  Your guess is as good as mine, but it’s important to note that even some test optional colleges, such as Emory University, have signaled they are Test Preferred.

What does this mean for me?

As I’ve written previously, just because you have the option not to submit test scores doesn’t mean that’s in your best interest. “Test optional” generally means “test preferred.” You’ll want to think about your individual situation and school context. For example, will your peers at your high school be submitting?  If so, you’ll probably want to try and do well and send yours.

2. If you don’t submit ACT/SAT scores, other components will matter even more.

Without those ACT/SAT scores as part of your applicant profile, your AP and IB scores, special talents, and essays will matter even more. In an interview with Inside Higher Ed last fall, John Latting, Emory University’s dean of admissions and assistant vice provost of undergraduate enrollment, made clear that the school’s admissions office is becoming more wary of grade inflation. Emory is “weighting ‘external assessment’ more heavily than GPA, with a particular focus on AP scores.” And this year, admissions officers were given the option to “contact students who don’t submit an SAT or ACT score and encourage them to submit some piece of classwork they feel is representative of their academic interest and competency.”

Note: Test blind doesn’t always mean what you think

Also, bear in mind that even schools that are test blind and don’t consider SAT or ACT scores at all may still look closely at your AP or IB scores. Take the University of California system. UC Berkeley, UCLA, and UC Irvine have all said they look at AP and IB results. UC Berkeley’s admissions site makes clear that AP and IB exam scores as well as those from SAT subject tests are part of the holistic application review process.

3. Rising Grade Inflation Means Your “A” GPA is Less Valuable

There’s nothing that matters more in your application than your academic profile. Colleges want to know that you’ll be able to do the work if you’re admitted! But, as I’ve written about before, the GPA is hardly a standard measurement and grade inflation is widespread and rising. (see the graph below.) This means that the pool of students applying to competitive schools with an A-average is only getting larger, particularly in well-resourced communities. Futhermore, there are so many different grading policies. You need to understand your individual context within your school and your schools context within your region.

When college admissions officers review your transcript and your GPA, they’ll also look at the rigor of your high school and whether it’s a school that’s known to inflate students’ grades. Test scores—the SAT and ACT, and APs and the IB—are also a helpful indicator of a student’s ability to thrive in the classroom. Duke is test optional, for example, but as its admissions office points out in its FAQs for applicants, “We value those scores as demonstrations of subject mastery to complement your academic transcripts. You should self-report these scores in your application.”

4. colleges ARE USING AI to Screen Your Application & Check Your Essays

This past year, ChatGPT and other generative AI systems suddenly seemed to be everywhere. Unsurprisingly, some students quickly caught onto the idea that they could harness this technology to help them write their college application essays. This is an extremely slippery slope and a bad idea! The Common App announced last August that “substantive” AI use in applications falls under its fraud policy.

What’s more, two can play at the AI game.

While admissions officers initially seemed hesitant to start using AI in their own work, norms have started to change in the last year, and are likely to keep shifting. Not only are admissions officers becoming more keenly aware of if and how students might be using generative AI in their applications, they’re learning to use of the same technology for their own ends. According to a recent survey from the online education magazine Intelligent, 50% of college admissions officers are currently using AI in their review process. And 80% said they plan to start using it at some point in 2024!

How they’re using this technology varies somewhat from school to school. Some places are using AI to review recommendation letters and transcripts, for example, by running them through keyword searchs in order to weed out low GPAs or letters that aren’t largely positive. And some are also screening essays using tools that detect plagiarism or AI-generated writing. I’ve heard stories of other students who have had their applications flagged for use of AI, which is obviously a situation you want to avoid.

It seems unlikely that any admissions office would rely solely—or even largely—on an AI system. Many admissions offices already used pretty algorithmic systems to filter applications, AI just allows them to automate these processes. But don’t freak out: that doesn’t mean that a machine is single-handedly deciding your fate! When people hear about admissions officers using AI, “they freak out,” Rick Clark, assistant vice provost and executive director of undergraduate admissions at Georgia Institute of Technology, told US News and World Report. “They think all of a sudden Yale is not going to have humans making decisions anymore. That is just completely false.”

Colleges use chatbots and AI marketing to inform, but also to enroll you.

Since this merits an entire blog post unto itself, I won’t get into all the details here. Despite what you may think about how difficult it is to get into college, many colleges struggle to fill their seats. Per a recent article in Forbes magazine, colleges are “starting to use the technology to address some of their largest and most persistent challenges - including such bottom-line issues as increasing enrollment, improving student retention, and allocating financial aid.”

5. The Supreme Court affirmative Action decision results in little actual change

As you probably know, last summer the Supreme Court ruled that affirmative action policies at Harvard and the University of North Carolina were unconstitutional. Obviously this is a big deal. But what does it actually mean for applicants? Depending on who you are and where you come from, it may not mean much at all.

This year marks the first application cycle since the Supreme Court decision, and a few new trends are emerging. According to recent reporting from CNBC, there were more students applying to college overall, and a larger share identified as an underrepresented minority, a first-generation applicant, or an international student. The number of below-median-income ZIP codes increased too.

That being said, all signs indicate that when it comes to the actual decision-making processes of admissions officers, little is likely to change, especially at more selective schools. These schools haven’t really changed how they select new students in over a decade! 

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose - Mostly!

In reality, the factors that make someone a compelling college candidate haven’t changed all that much.  You need to get good grades in challenging classes, do well on relevant tests, develop strong relationships with adults who will write your recommendations, participate in interesting activities in a deep way, and wrap that all up in a pretty “package:” a compelling written “presentation” (application) about yourself.  Ensuring those things is still the best thing you can do to up your odds of getting into the school of your dreams.

Resources: Some articles about standardized testing and college admissions 2024

The Misguided War on the SAT, New York Times, 2024

Admissions at most colleges will be unaffected by the Supreme Court Ruling… The Brookings Institute, November 2023

To Test or Not To Test, Brown Alumni Magazine, 2024

UT Austin Reinstates Standardized Test Scores in Admissions, UT News, March 2023

Is AI Affecting College Admissions, U.S. News, December 2023