Has Test-Optional Increased Admissions Competitiveness?
Preliminary Takeaways About College Admissions Results for HS Class of 2022
4/6.2022 this is a work-in-progress
So much of what I wrote a year ago about the 2020-21 admissions cycle for EA/ED still applies to 2022.
Test optional policies (plus likely a COVID 2.0 world for 2022, e.g. more comfort that college will remain pretty “normal,” return of international students… ) precipitated a record number of applications, once again, to the most “popular” schools. That doesn’t add up to necessarily a greater number of qualified applicants.
Whether you are talking about colleges with a 3% acceptance rate, or ones with a 20-30% acceptance rates (e.g. Boston College, Middlebury, NYU, Syracuse, Trinity, Wake Forest) there are thousands of not only qualified applicants, but extra qualified ones. (I recommend that you read my post on grade inflation.) I just did a deep dive into AP exam trends to gain some perspective…..there are more kids who score a 5 on any one of the APUSH, AP Calc BC and AP Lang. exams than there are first-year spots of all the ivies (+ MIT, Stanford, U. Chicago) combined. There are also thousands of kids scoring all 5s on multiple AP exams. Add kids who get 4s or 5s and you’re in the tens of thousands.
This is obvious, of course, but I think it helps to remind ourselves and our kids of this (and is sort of a corollary of the above: colleges with even a 25-30% acceptance rate (e.g. Boston College, Wake Forest, the majority of applicants will be denied.
The happiest students of mine so far, and those whom I’m reading about in various college admissions groups, are ones who (and whose parents) understood all of the above, made sensible college lists, had reasonable and/or managed expectations going into the process, and sometimes made some difficult choices about if and where to apply early - and generally - based on their own, and/or their child’s, tolerance for risk or for financial considerations. I want to add one thing, however.
A last note for now….
I really don’t like to say anything bad about teachers, school counselors, independent counselors. None of us are perfect. And colleges’ lack of transparency often turn things into a bit of a guessing game. And to be fair, school counselors even at smaller independent schools have to focus on many kids, not only yours. However, I do know a few less happy students/families who received what I’d consider some bad advice. So, I want to reiterate the importance of students and parents doing their own research early on about high school curriculum, standardized testing, appropriate recommenders, summer and EC endeavors, athletic prospects (if that applies), etc.
Remember, your teens may look and sound like adults, but they are not adults and they still need you!
What I had written in January 2022
I think what I wrote below about the 2020-21 admissions cycle will apply to 2021-22 — perhaps, even more so. As reported in numerous articles based on data provided by The Common Application, “as of November 16, 2021, the number of college applicants had increased 13%, and total applications submitted have increased 22%, compared to the previous year.” But more applicants doesn’t necessarily mean more competitive for your child. Without information on who specifically has applied and who specifically is being admitted, that 22% increase doesn’t really provide very useful information.
From 2021 (HS Class of 2021)
By now, I’m guessing that many of you have heard about the record number of applications received by many of the most selective colleges for Early Action (EA) and Early Decision (ED) admissions. And though the 2020-21 admissions cycle is not yet 100% over, current data indicate a 10% increase overall (early + regular) in Common Applications submitted this year.
But let’s cut to the chase: Have test optional policies created a more competitive college admissions landscape?
Yes and no. Test Optional policies certainly contributed to the increased number of applicants, but the answer to the question of the effect on competitiveness for EA/ED varied a lot by institution.
More important…
EA/ED results don’t provide the full picture.
A Few Big Picture Takeaways
Common App. Applications Rose 10% Overall, But Not all Colleges Benefited
2. International Applications Rose 9%
Some are calling it the “Biden Bump.” Call it what you will. With the ability of many colleges and universities to demonstrate that they can successfully host students on campuses even in a COVID world, plus bets on a “friendlier” student visa climate international students are, once again, applying to U.S. institutions in large numbers. Although applications from China fell significantly this year, international applications overall rose 9% and applications from the top 10 countries (by application volume) rose 2%. This trend is likely to continue.
Test Optional’s Effect: Be Careful What You Wish For
As a member of professional groups of high school and independent college counselors, I’ve been reading complaints about how “bad” and “brutal” the admit rates were for this year’s EA/ED. I was somewhat puzzled by these responses.
Why?
It’s not globally accurate; as we saw in the chart above for all applicants, and you’ll see in the chart below for early applicants, there was a lot variation by institution.
So many of these same counselors have been pushing for and applauding the existing, and COVID-prompted, TO policies — the same policies that contributed to the application frenzy and resulting lower (in some cases) admit rates!
But let’s all pause and hold off on the prognosticating for now, because the available data simply don’t support all the conclusions people are making. And I’m going to tell you why.
What We’ve Learned So Far From The EA/ED Round
Now that the latest round of EA/ED information is available, let’s take a look at how early admissions during the fall of 2020 (for class of 2025) actually shook out at some institutions:
important conclusions You CAn draw from this data:
Small and large selective institutions enjoyed large increases in applicants.
The actual number of EA/ED admits, however, was highly variable. This year, Harvard became more competitive in the EA round, admitting 16% fewer students EA, while Boston College was easier to get into, admitting 26% more students ED. Because COVID prompted a greater number of students for the college class of 2024 to defer their attendance, some colleges offered fewer EA/ED spots, but we don’t yet know how this will affect Regular Decision.
Adoption of test-optional policies absolutely contributed to application increases, but we don’t yet know how much because...
New, more scalable outreach initiatives on the part of colleges also contributed to increased applications. Colleges discovered that virtual fairs and info sessions enabled them to cast an even wider net, informing more potentially qualified — but often underserved — students of opportunities, including the availability of financial aid. You can read about Yale’s take on the effect of virtual outreach here.
Brown University’s Dean of Admission, Logan Powell, attributes the jump in applications at Brown this year to unpredictability caused by COVID-19. He suspects that uncertainty — especially for students unable to take the SAT — caused students to apply to more schools than usual to improve their odds of acceptance. He also thinks that the lack of in-person visits probably added to the number of applications, since students were unable to narrow their options in the fall as they might have in a more normal year.
What We Still Don’t Know About EA/ED This Year
What we don’t know includes some of the most important things!
What types of students were admitted early this year? Were they legacies, athletes, development prospects, students with extraordinary talents, and other super-qualified applicants — i.e., the usual suspects? Or was there a whole new and different pool of admitted early applicants?
What percentage of students who didn’t submit test scores were admitted? It’s hard to understand the effect of test-optional policies without this piece of data, since it could very well be that the EA/ED admits all had strong profiles and good test scores. Or it could be that most of the EA/ED admits without test scores would have been offered admission anyway (see the list of usual suspects above).
We really won’t know the full picture about competitiveness of admissions until after RD. For example, some institutions have said they plan to increase the first-year class size for their class of 2025.
Of course, it’s always possible that the number of applications was also increased by what some college counselors call “squeakers”: the type of student who applies to a “reach” school and hopes to “squeak” in with a little luck. I wouldn't worry too much about this phenomenon, because it already happens every year — and right now there’s just no evidence that test-optional policies actually helped less-qualified students get in.
What Does This All Mean…For You Personally?
First, don’t worry so much about what you’re hearing. More applications — and hence, lower admit rates — do not by themselves correlate with a more competitive cycle. As an exaggerated example, if more C-average students apply to Harvard, it does not make the Harvard applicant pool more competitive for students with better grades. Unless we learn all the details about what type of applicant got in during the EA/ED round, it will be nearly impossible to draw any definitive conclusions. But given their general lack of transparency when it comes to admissions, it’s very unlikely colleges will reveal that answer with any specificity. The truth is that we just can’t tell which of these test-optional students were accepted who otherwise wouldn’t have been.
Special tips for graduating seniors (HS class of 2021) if you are considering attending one of these colleges that saw decrease in applicants - before you commit 1) examine the institution’s general financial health; 2) check whether or not the college is planning significant cuts/changes to departments or majors that may be important to you; 3) try to negotiate the price and/or financial aid award.
And now the big question…
Do I Still Have to Take the ACT or SAT?
It depends on who you are and where you’re planning to apply. From an article in Georgetown’s student newspaper…
“Of the early action pool, only 7.34% of applicants who did not submit standardized test scores were admitted. ACT scores ranged from 33 to 35; mid-50% SAT verbal scores of 720 to 770, and mid-50% of SAT math scores from 730 to 790. Score ranges were consistent with those of prior years’ application cycles.”
The experts in college admissions I’ve been talking to agree: If you think you could do well on the ACT/SAT, it will only enhance your profile and confirm your strong class grades. If you end up not doing well, you can always choose to not submit your score. If you want a deeper understanding of my answer to this, I encourage you to see our webinar about why and how colleges use standardized test scores - though the role of test scores continually changes and…varies by institution.
For families who are struggling financially and/or for students who represent underserved groups that meet colleges’ enrollment goals, ACT/SAT testing may not be as critical.
For families with access to more resources and/or who attend well-funded schools, test-optional policies probably have made things somewhat more competitive for you. Still, it is unlikely that we will ever discover the magnitude of that as explained above.
One final note to any family who can’t or doesn’t want to enroll in an ACT/SAT class or engage a private tutor:
Any student who uses quality materials and devotes significant time to truly intentional practice can improve on these tests without a class or a tutor. Effective ACT/SAT prep does require time and effort, but there is a wealth of excellent free and low-cost materials out there to help.
If you would like a tutor, we’re here to help! But I stand by my statement above, so we also have many resources to help you get started on your own. Please feel free to check out some of our most helpful resources below — and good luck with your test preparation!
Blog Post Sources
Common Apps New Data Show Overall Gains in Applications, But Not For First Gen., Inside Higher Ed, January 26, 2021
Interest Surges in Top Colleges While Struggling Ones Scrape For Applicants, New York Times, February 20, 2021
"International Student Applications To U.S. Colleges Are Rebounding. Is It A Biden Bounce?” Forbes, February 1, 2021
ACT/SAT Resources for Students
Raise Your ACT/SAT Verbal Score In 3 Weeks